Fredericksburg Texas

The information presented below is complied from data sourced via the Gillespie County Multiple Listing Service.  The tracking historical sales data is grouped into categories that include:  ”Residential”, “Rural Subdivision Lots/Tracts”, Acreage, Farm/Ranch” and “City Lots”.  These categories are further defined by “area” (e.g. in town, out-of-town/county).



While it can be difficult to portrait a true “apples to apples” picture of current real estate sales, the numbers speak for themselves as categorized.  A lot can be read “between the lines” when discussing these figures, if you would like more detailed information on these summary comparisons, feel free to contact me at your convenience.

1st Quarter-2009

·      Residential-City (Fredericksburg, TX) -  The total number of homes sold in the 1st quarter of 2009 declined 32.3% from sales reported in the 1st quarter of 2008 (31 in ‘08 and 21 in ‘09). The average price of a sold property declined 22.26% ($254,144 in ‘08 vs. $197,562 in ‘09) and the average number of days-on-market (DOM) has increased an average of 16% (174 in 1st qtr. 2008 vs. the current 202 days). The total dollar volume of homes sold declined 47.34%. Notably, the average list price to sale price ratio (LP/SP) has remained statistically unchanged.

·      Residential-County (Gillespie) - The total number of homes (w/acreage) sold in the 1st quarter of 2009 declined 68.75% from the sales reported in the 1st quarter of 2008 (16 in ‘08 vs. 5 in ‘09).  The average price of a sold property declined 28.15% ($301,031 in ‘08 vs. $216,300 in ‘09) and the average number of DOM has increased 25.3% (229 in ‘08 to 287 in ‘09).  The total dollar volume of homes sold has declined 77.55%. Notably, the average LP/SP ratio has remained statistically unchanged (93% vs. 93%).

·      Lots-City (Fredericksburg, TX) - The total number of lots sold in the 1st quarter of 2009 declined 82.35% from the sales reported in the 1st quarter of 2008 (17 in ‘08 vs. 3 in ‘09).  The average price of a sold lot declined 69.22% ($91,679 in ‘08 vs. $28,217 in ‘09) and the average DOM has decreased 70.6% (255 in ‘08 vs. 75 in ‘09).  The total dollar volume of lots sold has decreased 94.6%. Notably, the average LP/SP ratio has decreased  by 4.3%.


Note: these figures can be slightly misleading as the volume sold so far in 2009 is statistically insignificant and not readily comparable to 2008 volume. 

·      Rural Subdivision Lots/Tracts - The total number of acreage lots sold in the 1st quarter of 2009 declined 71.4% (28 in ‘08 vs. 8 in ‘09).  The average price of a sold acreage lot declined 26% ($171,702 in ‘08 vs. $126,925 in ‘09) and the average DOM was statistically unchanged.  The total dollar volume of acreage lots sold declined 78.87%.  Notably, the average LP/SP ratio has decreased by 3.37%.

·      Acreage, Farm/Ranch (All MLS Counties) - The total number of properties categorized as Farm/Ranch sold in the 1st quarter of 2009 declined 58.82% (34 in ‘08 vs. 14 in ‘09).  Average prices and DOM tend to be less significant in this category as the properties offered and sold vary tremendously. Most notably, total sales volume has decreased by 61.41% from 1st quarter 2008 vs. 1st quarter 2009.

Amid the primarily bleak news continuing to pour forth about the state of our economy, we are beginning to see glimpses of ‘good” news that could herald the stirrings of a recovery.  Oops, hold on.  Scratch that.

News reports today are that the recession is catching up with Texas and that more “pain” is forecast.  Economists are predicting that unemployment could rise to as high as 8% statewide.  Gillespie County is reporting record high unemployment (a relatively respectable 4.3%) and all sales indicators for Fredericksburg TX real estate continue to give heartburn to people like me.

Of course, these are the same economists that utterly failed to “predict” the current mess we find ourselves in so I tend to take all their current predictions with a grain of salt.  These folks are about as reliable as weather forecasters in my opinion.  I have learned to go with what I see first-hand.

I’ll spare you the frightful statistics on sales, price reductions, etc. and simply say that it is a terrible time to be a seller of real estate but a pretty good time to be a buyer.  Financing is available, tax incentives are huge (for 1^st time buyers, anyway), sellers are “motivated” and inventory is plentiful.

Be forewarned; however, that agents all over town are psyching their sellers up for the “selling season”, that “traditional” time it is believed that the market is strongest (March to mid-summer).  I predict that the pace of price reductions will slow noticeably as false hopes are re-infused into the Fredericksburg market and sellers are encouraged to “hold tight”.

Being the contrarian, I would opine that now is the best time to put your best price forward, to jump ahead of all the other competing properties.  Arguably, “the season” does bring out more buyers and today’s buyers are incentivized in ways they haven’t been before (e.g. low interest rates, fear of other investment vehicles, tax credits, etc.) so why not take advantage of that as a seller?

Buyers in this market are all about “deals”, perceived or otherwise.  If you truly want to sell, you have to stand out.  Standing out today is all about price, price and price. The buyers are there, you just have to get them off the fence.

Buyers, you will be lured off that fence in various ways so be patient, but be ready.

Real estate has always been a great hedge against inflation and other economic woes.  While real estate may have led us into the current mess, it is also what will lead us out of it.  Values in Gillespie County/Fredericksburg, TX/the Hill Country have held up very well (thank you very much) and should be seen as a sign of the inherent and unchanging desirability of our little corner of the world.