Again With the Bust BS?
The Washington Post, New York Times and even the lowly Austin American Statesman are all trumpeting a new Commerce Department report that they say concludes that the “slowdown in the nation’s long housing boom, which has been anticipated for at least two years, seems to have finally arrived”. This is based on a “backlog” of 528,000 unsold homes, a nine year high. Two questions: Anticipated by whom and what national housing market (see post titled “We Ain’t Got No Stinking Bubble”, April 2005)
Forget the fact that, like politics, “all real estate is local” and try to overlook the apparent joy with which this report is cited by the press, look at the facts (as they relate to Fredericksburg):
Total sales for 2005 (vs. 2004) were +58.65%
Average prices for 2005 (vs. 2004) were +14.9%
Every single category for sales activity that can be tracked in our market shows double digit increases over the previous year!
So, you ask, what’s changed in the last 60 days? Answer…nothing! Rates remain near historic lows and every other economic indicator you can name is showing strong gains.
People will often say that numbers don’t lie. While that may be true, it’s also true that they are easy to manipulate and easy to misinterpret. For every doom and gloom report issued on the state of the “nation’s housing market”, you can find hundreds of local reports to contradict them with irrefutable claims of markets that are healthy as can be.
My advice is to take reports of the “nation’s housing market” with a giant grain of salt. If you want the facts, call someone who knows the real numbers.





