February 28, 2006

Again With the Bust BS?

The Washington Post, New York Times and even the lowly Austin American Statesman are all trumpeting a new Commerce Department report that they say concludes that the  “slowdown in the nation’s long housing boom, which has been anticipated for at least two years, seems to have finally arrived”.  This is based on a “backlog” of 528,000 unsold homes, a nine year high.  Two questions:  Anticipated by whom and what national housing market (see post titled “We Ain’t Got No Stinking Bubble”, April 2005)

 

Forget the fact that, like politics, “all real estate is local” and try to overlook the apparent joy with which this report is cited by the press, look at the facts (as they relate to Fredericksburg):

 

Total sales for 2005 (vs. 2004) were +58.65%

Average prices for 2005 (vs. 2004) were +14.9%

 

Every single category for sales activity that can be tracked in our market shows double digit increases over the previous year!

 

So, you ask, what’s changed in the last 60 days?  Answer…nothing! Rates remain near historic lows and every other economic indicator you can name is showing strong gains.

 

People will often say that numbers don’t lie.  While that may be true, it’s also true that they are easy to manipulate and easy to misinterpret.  For every doom and gloom report issued on the state of the “nation’s housing market”, you can find hundreds of local reports to contradict them with irrefutable claims of markets that are healthy as can be.

 

My advice is to take reports of the “nation’s housing market” with a giant grain of salt.  If you want the facts, call someone who knows the real numbers.

 

Fredericksburg Texas Property For Sale

Posted by fbgjeff at 15:03:13 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

What's Happening Now?

The best way to sum up an answer to this one is that we’re all waiting for the big Spring listing and selling season.  By “all” I mean that the buyers and the agents are waiting for the sellers to list so that we can start the market moving again.

 

As I mentioned in a previous post, our current inventory leave much to be desired. The buyers are out and about, but there seems to be little to capture their interest at the moment.  This translates into our currently being in a sellers market.

 

While you sellers chew on that for a bit, I’ll try to address buyers concerns about our inventory by mentioning a few that will hit the market in the not-too-distant-future:

 
  • Phase VI of the popular Stone Ridge development is well underway.  This is basically and extension of Amberstone out to Kneese Road.  There will be on the order of  20+ lots priced in the neighborhood of $55,000-70,000.  Look for these to hit in early summer.
  • Cool Water Ranch is an acreage subdivision just a few minutes north of town off of Sultemier-Moellering Road.  Lots will range in size from 4 to 14 acres and be priced in the neighborhood of $25,000-$30,000 per acre.  Many of these lots will feature spectacular views. Look for these to hit the market in late April.
  • Big Sky Ranch is another acreage subdivision just southwest of town off of Hayden Ranch Road.  Lots will likely be 10-18 acres and be priced somewhere near $20,000 per acre.  Many of these will also have tremendous views.  Look for these to hit the market very soon as well.
 

Looks like we’ve got a “year of the lot” on our hands.  This bodes well for builders in the area and speaks to the pent-up demand for this type of product.

 

Fredericksburg Texas Property For Sale

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February 16, 2006

Anatomy of a Remodel VI

The re-wiring has been competed and the final trim-out and hook-up of the new service will come after the interior painting has been complete. 

 

Now that the exterior of the big house is primed, we’re starting to get a better picture of what the finished product will look like. 

 

They began painting the main body of the house and it looks fantastic.  They will finish that today and then go back and start hand-painting the trim, doors, windows, etc. 

 

We’ve had a bit of a go-round with the contractor over what constitutes “trim” but after talking to both the worker bees and the boss, I think we’ve made ourselves clear.  Hint:  never let a painter tell you the way things “should be”.  More often than not, they are wrong.  My wife and I spent some time this morning driving the area and looking at historic homes that have been painted in the last several years and we know we a right and the painter dudes are wrong. 

 

I won’t bore you with the details of the above dispute, but are pleased with the progress so far and I’ll let the images speak for themselves

. 

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February 06, 2006

Anatomy of a Remodel V

Well the worker bees are humming on the outside of the big house.  This morning, there were three guys scrapping away at the old paint.  This is after they sandblasted a good bit of the exterior last week.  In fact, there are several places where they took it all the way down to the old pine siding.  

 

The remodeling surprise of the week is already upon us!  We knew we had to upgrade the electrical service to provide for the modern amenities (A/C, hairdryers, etc.) but we were unable to confirm (until today) that the existing wiring is of the old “knob and tube” variety.  It is, of course, one of the things we’ll now have to bring up to code.  One of those “pay me now or pay me later” things.  This will add another couple of thousand to the price tag.

 We’re probably at a point (budget-wise) where we’ll elect to focus on the big house and the exterior (only) of the small house.  This will allow us to get the big house rented to help cover our payments and have enough of the small house done so that it looks good.  We’ll finish up the small house as we can afford it.  In the interim, my wife can use it as her art studio/storage.  At least we’ll have running water, electrical service (new panels and a couple of outlets).  

 

The old wood siding on the rear of the small house is in pretty bad shape and it will be difficult to just replace the batten part of the board and batten.  We came up with a solution that should look pretty sharp when we’re done.  The rear will be wrapped with Tyvex and sheathed with corrugated tin.  I know, I know, sounds funny, but trust me, it will look really nice and very authentic.  This solution will accomplish other things like adding insulation, covering imperfections and providing skirting at the foundation that will help keep the critters out.  

 

They should be caulking and priming the exterior this week and be ready for painting

 

next week!

Posted by fbgjeff at 10:09:51 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |